Today’s Top News ⇒ nba playoffs 2025

[Em Vicky Khan]

Eastern Conference first round
(1) Cavaliers vs. (8) Heat or Hawks

Atlanta won consecutive games against Cleveland earlier this season, but that was with a healthy Jalen Johnson and before trading De’Andre Hunter to Cleveland. Based on the lineup Atlanta would take into a series with the Cavs, the Hawks appear seriously undermanned, especially in the frontcourt, where their lack of size has been glaring against big, physical squads. Possible returns by Larry Nance Jr. and/or Clint Capela would only slightly mitigate the situation.

Miami can hold up better defensively against the Cavs’ torrid offensive attack, but the Heat will struggle to generate points against Cleveland’s elite rim protectors. This will be quick either way, but the Heat have a better chance of stealing one. Pick: Cavaliers in 4 vs. Hawks; Cavaliers in 5 vs. Heat

[Em Vicky Khan]

(4) Pacers vs. (5) Bucks

The Bucks won three of the four regular-season meetings between these teams, but Damian Lillard played in all four of them, and Khris Middleton participated in one. With Lillard likely missing at least the beginning of the series due to blood clots (he returned to practice Thursday) and Middleton downgraded to Kyle Kuzma at the trade deadline, the Bucks are almost laughably dependent on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s greatness to drag them to victory.

[Em Vicky Khan]

I won’t entirely dismiss the chance of him pulling it off, especially if Kevin Porter Jr.’s late-season heater can continue for two more weeks and provide some secondary scoring. We also must consider Doc Rivers’ bizarre long-term trendline of seemingly coaching massively better when short-handed than with his full roster. On the other hand, the Bucks basically have no good wings, and without Lillard, the spacing around Giannis isn’t as threatening either.

Indiana, meanwhile, has slowly gained steam, as Tyrese Haliburton has become healthier and injected more pace into the offense. Indy doesn’t have a great matchup for Giannis, likely toggling between Myles Turner, Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin (fun wild card: Could they try Jarace Walker here?). However, I’m not sure it matters because they can run the Bucks into the ground with their superior bench and multiple offensive weapons. This would be a great series with a healthy Lillard; without him, it feels like a repeat of last year. Pick: Pacers in 6

[Em Vicky Khan]

(3) Knicks vs. (6) Pistons

Get ready for the single most lit arena of the postseason on April 24. That date is Game 3 of the Knicks-Pistons series, and Detroit, which has not won a playoff game since 2008, will quite possibly be looking to end one of the league’s most ignominious streaks in its first home game of the series. The last time the Pistons won a postseason game, Tom Thibodeau was an assistant coach for the other team. Sam Cassell played.

[Em Vicky Khan]

The Pistons’ surge from a 14-win tire fire of a season to the sixth seed in the East is an incredible story, even if it likely doesn’t end well in this series, and the locals will be fired up to revel in this unexpected taste of success. It helps that they have a feisty bunch to support; on any given night, the Pistons enthusiastically throw down with either the opponent, the refs or both.

The Knicks have two big, long wings to throw at Cade Cunningham with Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby, and the Pistons don’t have a lot of good answers for Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. Detroit can turn to Isaiah Stewart to help contain the Brunson-Towns two-man game, but that takes Jalen Duren’s lob threat and short-roll passing off the floor. Detroit coach J.B. Bickerstaff can toggle through multiple wing options, but all of them have limitations. He’ll want to redeem himself against Thibodeau after losing to his Knicks in five with Cleveland two years ago, but I’m not sure he has the cards.

Detroit’s best pathway to victory is if the Knicks start running out of players, but we’re early in the playoffs for that, and New York should benefit from the return of Mitchell Robinson. The Knicks have been fantastic against non-elite teams all season and should continue that trend. Pick: Knicks in 6

[Em Vicky Khan]

(2) Celtics vs. (7) Magic

Orlando actually won the season series 2-1, and if the Celtics start Baylor Scheierman, Torrey Craig and Luke Kornet like they did in their previous meeting, the Magic might have a chance.

Alas, the Celtics are champions for a reason and come off a 61-win season, while the Magic made history of their own by being the first non-winning division champion in league annals. Orlando is better than its record — star forwards Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero missed considerable time with oblique injuries, and the on-off splits were huge for Wagner in particular (a 12.1-point difference in net rating). Orlando is huge, young and finished second in defense, but the Magic have little shooting and struggle to generate easy looks unless they can mash opponents for second shots.

Historically, the Celtics have taken one game off every series, in between mercilessly pounding their opposition with 3-point bombs and an impenetrable switching defense, and Orlando’s size and intensity make it a bad team to try coasting against. That gets us to a five-game gentlemen’s sweep, but that’s where my Orlando optimism ends. Pick: Celtics in 5

[Em Vicky Khan]

West semifinals
(1) Thunder vs. (5) Clippers

I think the Clippers are the second-best team in the West and the most capable of knocking off the mighty Thunder in a playoff series. They were lights-out over the final six weeks with a healthy Leonard and have two All-Star-caliber supporting cast members in Harden and Zubac.

That said, generating points could be a bit of a slog given the Clippers’ limited shooting and secondary scoring. Alex Caruso held up well against Leonard in the teams’ late-season meeting in Los Angeles, won by Oklahoma City in a close shave thanks to Caruso’s late stop against Leonard, while Luguentz Dort can handle the Harden assignment.

The Clippers have a perfect foil for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Kris Dunn, but can he stay on the floor if the Thunder stop guarding him? On the other hand, this series will test what the Thunder have in shot creation around their MVP candidate, which is where they failed in this same round against Dallas a year ago.

I hope we get full-strength teams for this because it has the potential for a great series. But until we see Leonard make it through a postseason intact, it’s hard to feel good about picking the Clippers to make a deep run. Pick: Thunder in 6

[Em Vicky Khan]

(3) Lakers vs. (7) Warriors

This is ratings gold for the league’s TV partners, with these two flawed but star-driven teams benefiting from the softest playoff bracket in a virtual repeat of 2023. Last time, it was the seventh-seeded Lakers who prevailed, but this time, I think the seventh-seeded Warriors may have the advantage.

L.A. won the first three meetings in the regular season before trades overhauled both rosters. The Warriors won the most recent meeting in early April, and that result offers a taste of why they’re my pick here: Golden State outscored the Lakers in bench points 26-7, and the Warriors held Dončić to 6-of-17 shooting with the help of Draymond Green’s switchability.

The Warriors don’t have as much star power as L.A., but Curry isn’t chopped liver, and Butler historically has raised his game dramatically in the playoffs. Additionally, look at the rosters and the options. When I really started breaking down this series, it stuck out just how little optionality the Lakers have if Plan A doesn’t work. JJ Redick’s hands are tied by the fact that he only has four players he can trust, two of whom are absolute sieves in individual defense. Golden State, meanwhile, rolls 10 deep, to the point that it can afford to keep a perfectly decent player like Jonathan Kuminga on ice. The Warriors can play big or small, fast or slow, can iso-ball with Butler or run Curry off a zillion screens. They have their limitations, but this feels like a pretty good matchup for them. Pick: Warriors in 6

[Em Vicky Khan]

East semifinals
(1) Cavaliers vs. (4) Pacers

It hasn’t received much attention, but Indiana’s starting lineup has absolutely smoked the league: The Tyrese Haliburton-Andrew Nembhard-Aaron Nesmith-Pascal Siakam-Myles Turner unit has a net rating of plus-11.1, and that bumps to plus-11.9 when Bennedict Mathurin replaces Nesmith. That’s the best rating for any lineup with at least 225 minutes that doesn’t belong to Cleveland, Boston or Oklahoma City, and it threatens even the best marks from those teams.

Cleveland’s starters were dominant themselves, with a plus-12.5 margin, but we expect that from a 64-win team that had a double-digit margin on the season. Indy’s data, from a team with just a plus-2.2 margin overall, is a bit more surprising.

My point here is to wake you up a little: Indy started 16-18, and we kind of forgot about them, but the Pacers are good. They went 34-14 after the slow start, with Haliburton clicking into gear and energizing a fast-tempo offense that constantly wrongfoots opponents. As the Pacers showed against the Knicks and Celtics a year ago, they’re a hard team to play against, even with playoff prep and scouting.

Indiana won the season series 3-1, but that comes with an orca-sized asterisk since Cleveland played its scrubs in two losses in the season’s final week. Indy’s starters played against Cleveland’s backups in one of those games, and the Pacers still only won by two.

I dare not pick Indiana here; I think a lack of frontcourt depth, in particular, may prove the Pacers’ undoing against Cleveland’s size, and the Cavs’ offense may just be unstoppable. But if you’re expecting a walkover, think again: This will be a real series, and the Cavs will have to earn their spot in the conference finals. Pick: Cavaliers in 6

[Em Vicky Khan]

(2) Celtics vs. (3) Knicks

Hardcore Knicks followers already walk into a Boston series resigned to their fate after the Celtics beat New York in all four regular-season meetings, three of which were lopsided affairs. Boston’s five-out spacing seems designed for the specific purpose of humiliating Towns, while the Celtics’ switchable defense takes away Towns’ pick-and-pops and Brunson drives that fuel the Knicks’ normally elite offense.

New York can take some solace from the most recent meeting, when Boston needed overtime before prevailing, but the Celtics still got up 49 3-point attempts, including 13 from Kristaps Porziņģis, and Jaylen Brown was laboring through a sore knee. New York can likely ride the MSG crowd and Boston’s one-bad-game-per-series penchant to extend this to a gentlemen’s sweep, but beyond that, I expect the Celtics to quickly usher New York into what could be a bumpy offseason. Pick: Boston in 5