Today’s Top News ⇒ nba playoffs 2025

[Em Vicky Khan]

NBA playoffs 2025 preview: Why Thunder will prevail, bracket-breaking Warriors and more


Does the NBA regular season mean less than it used to?

Recent history seems to be pointing that way. I feel like I’m mentioning this every year, but as long as it stays true, I’ll keep doing it: The postseason has become less chalky. Historically, the average NBA postseason only sees four teams without home-court advantage prevail out of the 15 series, but of late, that number has increased. We’ve had 26 such teams win series in the past five years, while only three of the 10 No. 1 seeds in that span have made it to the NBA Finals.

Six teams won a playoff series without home-court advantage in 2024; in 2023, we had seven. Before that, we hadn’t had more than five since 1995, when the Houston Rockets provided four by themselves.

There’s a good reason things are less chalky: The trade deadline is a more significant transactional milestone than it used to be. Teams such as the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors look a whole lot different today than they did in November. In recent years, the 2024 Dallas Mavericks and 2022 Boston Celtics used major deadline acquisitions to help fuel NBA Finals runs without overwhelming regular-season results.

That said, it’s a more top-heavy NBA than it’s been in some time. While the Oklahoma City Thunder, Cleveland Cavaliers and Celtics ran circles around the league, my “52-3-3” club — at least 52 wins, a plus-3.0 scoring margin and a top-three seed — only has four teams in it, with Houston squeaking in. That qualifier describes 44 of the last 45 NBA champions (prorating shortened seasons, of course), with the ’95 Rockets the exception. That suggests the other 26 teams have a combined 2 percent title probability.

There are reasons to think the dominance of those three teams has slightly less to it than initially meets the eye. But historically, teams that win that much and by those margins rarely lose in the postseason except to another team of similar quality.

However, it might be a fun ride through the early rounds. One indicator of a potential first-round upset is if the team with home-court advantage didn’t win the season series; that will be true in at least six cases this year, and possibly all eight if Atlanta and Dallas win Friday. Additionally, there’s something in the water in the second round: In the past five postseasons, teams with home-court advantage are just 7-13 in the conference semis.

Where does that leave us? With a lot of questions. And that’s good. Few things are more boring than waiting around two months for a fait accompli. Maybe in two months it will all seem obvious, but for the moment, we have some mystery in my playoffs preview and predictions.

[Em Vicky Khan]

Western Conference first round
(1) Thunder vs. (8) Grizzlies or Mavericks

The Thunder won 68 games with an all-time great scoring margin; they’re not losing four out of seven to either of these teams. On paper, Memphis has much more ability to make it a real series, pending Ja Morant’s ankle and antics, but the Grizzlies floundered down the stretch and are running out of usable wing players. That’s not a great situation when faced with the Thunder’s dominant guards. Dallas’ size, meanwhile, can put a little more pressure on Oklahoma City’s frontcourt, but the Mavs are drawing dead on the perimeter. Dallas beat Oklahoma City three times in the regular season without Luka Dončić, but Kyrie Irving played in all three. Pick: Thunder in 5 vs. Grizzlies; Thunder in 5 vs. Mavericks

[Em Vicky Khan]

(4) Nuggets vs. (5) Clippers

This should be fun! This series features four players who, at least at one point, had a claim on the mantle of “best player in the league.” The Clippers closed the year 18-3, and their only losses in 17 games over the last month were close shaves against Oklahoma City and Cleveland. In a related story, they have Kawhi Leonard looking like That Guy again, hammering any smaller player on switches and ripping balls away from unsuspecting ballhandlers.

[Em Vicky Khan]

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have a three-time MVP in Nikola Jokić, who may claim a fourth trophy this spring, and an injury question of their own in Jamal Murray, whose hamstrings have surpassed his knees as the biggest concern. Denver’s awful bench is less of a factor in the playoffs than in the regular season, but it’s still a worry and drags down the Nuggets’ ceiling.

[Em Vicky Khan]

I have the Clips as the better team, but the game-within-the-game here is Ivica Zubac against Jokić. Zubac was low-key awesome this season, but he’s backed up by vapor; keeping him out of foul trouble so he can check Joker for 40 minutes is paramount for the Clippers’ chances. One other thing to watch is the sideline chess match: Nuggets interim coach David Adelman gets to match wits with one of the game’s premier in-series adjusters in Tyronn Lue.

Historically, No. 4 vs. No. 5 series have been pretty close to a coin toss. I expect the Clippers to prevail, but I expect to be entertained along the way. Pick: Clippers in 6

(3) Lakers vs. (6) Timberwolves

This, on paper, is the best first-round series, and by my numbers, the most evenly matched as well.

The most interesting facet of the series involves the Lakers and their continuing effort to incorporate Dončić. Despite some awesome individual games, his numbers as a Laker are down pretty sharply from Dallas, and L.A.’s stats with him and LeBron James together aren’t imposing (just a plus-2.0 net rating).

The Lakers went 18-10 with Dončić in the lineup, but that includes some brutal losses (Charlotte, Utah, Brooklyn, Chicago twice). Dončić perked up over the last few weeks, but his Lakers numbers are still a far cry from what he did the previous two seasons in Dallas; in particular, he’s only taken 10.9 percent of his shots at the rim as a Laker and has yet to dunk in an L.A. uniform.

[Em Vicky Khan]

The nice thing for L.A. is that the Wolves’ perimeter threats aren’t that threatening, affording the Lakers easy hiding spots for their bad individual wing defenders while they load everyone up for Anthony Edwards. (Seriously, I’m not sure how this could have worked out any better for the Lakers, with the Clippers and Nuggets sequestered in the other bracket.) Can they get away with playing Dorian Finney-Smith at center against Minnesota’s huge front line? Those lineups were key to L.A.’s success in the second half of the season.

[Em Vicky Khan]

The one meeting between these teams post-trade was a nine-point win by L.A. against a Wolves team missing Rudy Gobert and Julius Randle; I’m not sure that tells us a lot. What might tell us more is Minnesota’s struggles to handle Dončić in last year’s Western Conference finals. Between that and a schedule with multiple off days early in the series that should allow L.A. to ride its starters heavy minutes, I give L.A. the advantage.

Even as I say that, I hesitate: The Wolves are bigger, deeper and went 17-4 in their last 21 games. It shocks me that nobody is picking Minnesota. Either team is a credible conference finalist, but in the end, I’m going to ride with L.A.’s superior star power. Pick: Lakers in 7

[Em Vicky Khan]

(2) Rockets vs. (7) Warriors

The Rockets and Warriors played five times this season and the Warriors won three of them, but the last one might be the most indicative of what a playoff game will look like: a Mortal Kombat-style tussle in San Francisco that Houston won 106-96. Alperen Şengün and Amen Thompson won their individual battles against Draymond Green and Stephen Curry that night, with Thompson completely erasing Curry.

[Em Vicky Khan]

Historically, No. 2 vs. No. 7 series haven’t gone well for the seventh seed, but this one might be an exception. The Warriors went 24-7 when Jimmy Butler played, and their season scoring margin (plus-3.3) wasn’t all that different from Houston’s (plus-4.5). My numbers, based on the lineups likely to play in this series, give the Warriors a slight advantage.

Either way, we’re going to learn a ton about the Rockets in the next two weeks, and that’s going to impact some crucial decisions around the corner. Is Şengün a go-to option against an elite defense who can produce points even against the likes of Draymond Green? Can Jalen Green be a consistent source of efficient shot creation against good defenses, or is he just the league’s best bad player? Does a Şengün-Steven Adams beast-ball frontcourt work against good teams? Can Thompson function offensively with limited shooting around him? Does Jabari Smith Jr. have a role in all this?

[Em Vicky Khan]

I have a lingering fear that the Rockets’ size, youth and athleticism might result in them ousting Golden State in five games, but they still have to put the ball in the basket against an elite defense, and I question how they can do that consistently. Between that and some Curry magic dust, I give the advantage to Golden State. Pick: Warriors in 6