Today’s Top News ⇒ nba playoffs 2025

[Em Vicky Khan]

West finals
(1) Thunder vs. (7) Warriors

Remember two years ago, when the Lakers rode into the conference finals on the sugar high of a soft bracket and people thought they might actually beat the Nuggets? Get ready for the sequel, except this time it involves the Warriors.

Golden State won two of the three regular-season meetings with the Thunder, although none happened with Butler. I was at the first, a November win in Oklahoma City when Chet Holmgren was injured in the opening minutes, sucking the life out of the building, and Golden State got big games from De’Anthony Melton and Andrew Wiggins. That feels like another century ago.

On paper, this doesn’t feel like a great matchup for the Warriors’ offense. The Thunder have multiple “chase” defenders to throw at Curry, led by Dort and Caruso, and elite rim protection against Butler’s drives as long as one of Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein can stay ambulatory. They also force turnovers in waves, an especially pertinent issue for a Warriors team that might throw more wayward “what were you thinking?” passes than any club in the league.

If Golden State makes it a series, it will be by gumming up the Thunder attack. The Warriors don’t have a true SGA-stopper and would likely lean more on a smoke-and-mirrors approach of traps and laying off bad shooters, but if they can keep the Thunder in the half court, then the collective IQ of Green and Butler at least gives the Warriors a chance.

More likely, youth is served in this one. The Thunder just have too many weapons and are too hard to score against. It would be a pretty massive upset if they didn’t make it out of the West. Pick: Thunder in 5

[Em Vicky Khan]

East finals
(1) Cavaliers vs. (2) Celtics

And now for the hard part.

Picking a Cleveland-Boston meeting in the conference finals is easy; picking a winner once we get here is not. The Cavs and Celtics played four times this season, and each team won twice, with a net margin of one point separating them. Also, don’t overlook that Cleveland smoked Boston in Game 2 of last year’s second round behind a torrid Donovan Mitchell before his knees balked and the Cavs ran out of players.

This year’s version of the Cavs has a more confident Evan Mobley, more size and shooting with the addition of De’Andre Hunter and Ty Jerome floater magic fueling a productive second unit. One can fairly wonder about Mitchell’s ability to get through the postseason, but the Cavs kept him to just 31.4 minutes per night to help preserve him for this part, and Cleveland might only play 10 games or so in the month that precedes the conference finals.

Similar things can be said about Boston, with Brown nursing a sore knee, Al Horford nearing 39 and Porziņģis seemingly permanently questionable. I hate to say “it will just come down to injuries,” but as we saw in last year’s war-of-attrition called the Eastern Conference playoffs, it very well might.

For now, let’s assume it comes down to basketball. I give the Celtics the slightest of advantages, even with Cleveland having home court in a rubber match. Boston cruise-controlled through the regular season knowing it was planning on being back here, and a solid argument can be made that the Celtics’ regular-season numbers understate their peak strength.

The game-within-the-game here likely comes down to Boston’s ability to mash Cleveland’s small guards, and the Cavs’ ability to have those same guards score in switches against Boston’s bigs. Beyond that overarching big picture are wrinkles upon wrinkles thanks to the quality options available to both coaches, which should make for a fascinating chess match.

Prediction one: This will be the best series of the playoffs. Prediction two: Boston prevails, barely. Pick: Celtics in 7

[Em Vicky Khan]

NBA Finals
Thunder vs. Celtics

I’m not sure this is a great matchup for the Celtics; the Thunder worked them over in both regular-season matchups, with Porziņģis and Holmgren each missing one of them. As with the Cleveland series, Boston’s bigs’ ability to hold up in switches against elite guards feels like a key, except in this case, the ungraspable Gilgeous-Alexander adds another degree of difficulty. If the Thunder can force Boston to put two on the ball, the Celtics are in a very unnatural place; this isn’t a team built for trapping and forcing turnovers.

The Thunder, on the other hand, have multiple perimeter defenders to throw at Tatum and Brown, and their biggest defensive weakness — old-fashioned mash ball — seems like much more of an issue against, say, the Clippers or Nuggets, than it would be against Boston. (The best play you can run against Oklahoma City is missing a free throw.)

Big picture, I still struggle to pick against Oklahoma City. The Thunder’s biggest résumé shortcoming is that they haven’t proven they can win four playoff rounds, but that’s the same thing we thought about Boston in 2024 and Denver in 2023.

We have a hard time imagining things until they happen, even when there’s a lot of evidence punching us in the face. The Thunder won 68 games with the best scoring margin ever and have a much easier pathway than the other two dominant teams this season since Boston and Cleveland must play each other.

Either the Celtics or Cavs would make for a worthy adversary in an entertaining NBA Finals, but still … if the Thunder fail to win the title, that’s the story. I picked Boston over Oklahoma City at the start of the season, but it’s time to pivot and anoint the Thunder. Get used to it, because this could be the first of several. Pick: Thunder in 6